Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 181.740242 221.695830 271.644627 339.936488 432.934732 5.583600e+02 7.462011e+02
2025-01-26 143.964482 193.080814 263.272240 375.724486 561.642613 8.788779e+02 1.521743e+03
2025-02-02 121.864656 174.383036 256.869712 405.781387 694.155932 1.302357e+03 2.989080e+03
2025-02-09 106.360688 159.810591 250.108877 429.711551 828.589879 1.857278e+03 5.887590e+03
2025-02-16 94.037957 146.792583 241.251761 444.881553 955.012574 2.550405e+03 1.178605e+04
2025-02-23 84.144860 135.523241 232.083903 455.204384 1078.669198 3.436801e+03 2.516883e+04
2025-03-02 74.252292 122.277603 215.738405 443.073202 1134.184110 4.196739e+03 4.960508e+04
2025-03-09 66.290808 111.243576 201.377230 430.701049 1183.257813 5.072509e+03 1.078268e+05
2025-03-16 59.279584 100.952635 186.498874 412.143370 1200.965031 5.869063e+03 2.436674e+05
2025-03-23 57.699963 101.020143 194.015292 457.156305 1503.128083 9.878876e+03 6.280964e+06
2025-03-30 53.889168 95.981324 188.911851 464.037541 1656.693859 1.366590e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 51.269353 93.041414 188.161497 484.484264 1906.576856 2.125707e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 47.158890 86.601523 178.205900 473.180601 1989.352826 2.788534e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 46.368379 87.304988 186.461928 529.686071 2594.500847 6.820548e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 45.101012 86.745443 191.343437 577.443584 3275.203856 1.911049e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 43.529980 85.253423 193.372760 615.814349 4014.278048 6.824103e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 41.659161 82.796588 192.158240 640.313141 4726.472929 3.618477e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 39.748842 80.003140 189.413954 657.061955 5448.162919 7.671801e+07 NaN
2025-05-25 37.176047 75.293257 180.043205 637.386320 5618.138979 2.640275e+10 NaN
2025-06-01 34.849011 70.973365 171.228445 617.411342 5758.945078 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 32.534653 66.475042 161.212914 587.625825 5670.871956 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 32.447136 67.613403 169.289902 660.236117 7974.628335 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.183182 65.574634 166.661080 671.443934 9105.529852 NaN NaN